The Global Center for Energy Analysis (GCEA) produces original research and analysis on critical issues relating to global energy markets, policies and technologies.

Founded by former International Energy Forum Secretary General Joseph McMonigle, the center draws on bespoke research to bring independent and credible perspectives to the global energy dialogue, reflecting the priorities of producers and consumers in the OECD, emerging markets and the developing world.

We perform rigorous analysis and research, amplified by public events, social content and consultancy to assist governments, industry and stakeholders to make informed decisions on critical energy issues facing the world.

Leadership

Joseph McMonigle | President and CEO

Joseph McMonigle is a widely recognized leader and expert on global energy issues and international affairs. He is the President and CEO of the Global Center for Energy Analysis and recently served as the Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), the largest international organization of energy ministers based in the Diplomatic Quarter in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from 2020 through 2024.

In his role as IEF Secretary General, McMonigle advised world leaders and energy ministers on how to manage severe shocks to the energy system. In addition, he has been a keynote speaker and moderator at dozens of leading energy conferences to provide guidance on energy policy and transitions.

He is credited with raising the IEF’s visibility on the global stage and helping to promote a more sensible and realistic discussion about energy security, access and affordability in the Global South, climate progress and transitions.

He has over 25 years of experience working on global energy issues in the public and private sectors. He served as Chief of Staff at the US Department of Energy (2001-2005) helping to manage a cabinet agency with a $23 billion budget and over 100,000 employees. In addition, he served two years as Vice Chairman and US Representative to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US co-chair of the US-China Energy Working Group.

As a global energy leader, Mr. McMonigle is a frequent speaker at international energy events and meetings as well as a commentator for Al-Arabiya TV, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, Financial Times, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, and other media outlets.

Programs

We are committed to rigorous analysis and research, amplified by public events, social content and consultancy to assist governments, industry and stakeholders to make informed decisions on these critical energy issues facing the world.

Energy is a key driver of the global economy and essential for economic growth, prosperity and security. Energy market stability is a precondition for economic stability and meaningful progress in transition policy. Most credible outlook scenarios conclude that all forms of energy will be needed to address rising demand for energy and materials in both the developed and developing world through 2050.

GCEA provides insights on global energy markets, different energy sources, carbon credits and impacts from technologies and transition policies.

Many countries have made energy security a top priority on par with the transition and other national and international goals in the wake of the first market crisis of the energy transition. Rising energy demand and growing global population will require policymakers to strengthen energy security even as they address global warming.

GCEA provides insights on energy security policies and managing transitions to keep energy prices under control and maintain public support for climate policies.

A linear one-size-fits-all energy transition for the world is outdated and counterproductive for making progress on reducing emissions. Thanks to the outcome of the COP 28 in Dubai and the IEF's Global Energy Solutions Initiative, there is now a recognition that a multi-dimensional approach to the energy transition is needed with different pathways and starting points. In addition, GCEA recognizes that the transition must be focused on emissions reduction, being fuel and technology neutral.

GCEA provides insights on transition policies that promote progress over perfection to achieve rapid and real reductions in carbon emissions. These include investments in clean technologies such as coal-to-gas switching, decarbonization of oil and gas operations, carbon trading, carbon capture and storage and direct air capture.

Energy poverty, a burden disproportionately borne by Africans, remains a stark reality in the 21st century. While developing Asia has made significant strides in electrification over the past two decades, Africa lags far behind. In the relentless march toward the 2050 target for net zero emissions, Western energy modelers are painting increasingly ambitious scenarios, hoping to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade. Yet, hidden beneath the veneer of progress lies a troubling assumption—one that assumes lower per capita energy use in Africa in 2050 from today’s levels, assigning millions of Africans to languish in poverty indefinitely to achieve this vital climate goal.

The eradication of energy poverty should be a central focus for global climate and energy policy makers. Access to affordable energy is critical to a reduction in poverty and, by association, violent extremism, illegal migration and other challenges that afflict developed and developing nations alike.

GCEA provides insights on the energy and development priorities of the Global South and creates public awareness of this important topic.

Traditional renewables such as wind and solar can address only half of the emission reductions required for net zero by 2050, according to the IEA Technology Report. The other half must come from new technologies that are not yet commercialized or envisioned yet.

The solutions for hard-to-abate sectors will come from new technologies such as hydrogen, CCUS, small modular nuclear reactors, fusion and other technologies that are not yet envisioned. Clean energy R&D and investment are critical to realizing this future.

GCEA provides insights on new clean energy technologies and frameworks that will give rise to the energy unicorns of the future.

Growing demand and decarbonization will require unprecedented new investments across the energy sector, including reducing emissions from upstream oil and gas, power generation, transmission, distribution networks, and energy storage. McKinsey in 2024 estimated that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would require $275 trillion in cumulative investments.

Governments, the finance community and multilateral institutions need new insights and benchmarks for energy investments based on real-world demand scenarios and taking into account constraints on transition progress including critical minerals and permitting.

News

Global Center for Energy Analysis Announces Inaugural Fellows

The Global Center for Energy Analysis (GCEA) today unveiled five renowned energy analysts and communicators as its inaugural fellows who will drive research into new approaches to energy policy.

WASHINGTON D.C., Feb 18 – The Global Center for Energy Analysis (GCEA) today unveiled five renowned energy analysts and communicators as its inaugural fellows who will drive research into new approaches to energy policy.

Under the leadership of Joseph McMonigle, President and CEO of the GCEA, the fellows will be dedicated to overseeing research and analysis and curating the global energy dialogue through reports and articles as well as interventions at roundtables, industry events and digital media.

The inaugural fellows announced today include: Amena Bakr (Kpler, former Energy Intelligence Group and Reuters), Patricia Schouker (Energy Universe podcast, former policy officer European Commission DG Energy), Jamie Webster (BCG Center on Energy Impact, former IHSMarkit, PFC Energy), Tom Ashby (former IEF, TAQA and Reuters), and Eithne Trainor (public speaker, conference moderator, former BBC, CNBC, SkyNews and Bloomberg).

"We are pleased to announce our inaugural fellows who will drive the work of the center, responding to the urgent energy priorities of our interconnected world,” said Mr McMonigle. “From the highest levels of government, to leading consultancies, and respected influencers, our fellows bring unrivalled insights and influence to the global energy dialogue."

The new team members are listed below:

Amena Bakr

Amena Bakr is a leading international energy analyst and influencer, with 145,000 followers on X. She is Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC-plus research at Kpler, where she leads the analysis and client engagement on oil market analysis, OPEC policy, political trends and risk assessments. Previously, she was a senior research analyst with Energy Intelligence Group, where she also served as Chief OPEC Correspondent and Dubai Deputy Bureau Chief. She received several awards for her ground-breaking journalism on energy news and analysis. Before that, Amena was Energy Correspondent for Reuters in Dubai, Doha and Riyadh. Amena holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration from the Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport in Egypt, with a major in management information systems.

Jamie Webster

Jamie Webster is an internationally recognized energy analyst with expertise on oil and gas markets, the geopolitics of energy and energy security. He is currently the COO of BCG’s Center for Energy Impact. Previously he was at IHSMarkit, leading the oil market function and prior to that at PFC Energy where he led both global oil markets and scenarios creation. He is a former non-resident fellow at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy and was a Truman Security Fellow. He has been quoted extensively and written columns and articles for the FT, the Petroleum Economist and other outlets. Currently he is writing a book exploring the past and future of peak demand in all forms.

Patricia Schouker

Patricia Schouker is a globally recognized expert in energy security, supply chains, and critical infrastructure resilience, with extensive experience across Fortune 500 companies, the public sector, and international institutions. She specializes in the intersection of energy policy, emerging technologies, and geopolitics, advising on regulatory frameworks and risk management strategies that enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure amid escalating global uncertainties. Previously, Patricia served as a Policy Officer for DG Energy at the European Commission in Brussels. A thought leader in energy and security policy, Patricia holds multiple Non-Resident Fellowships and serves as an advisor with the International Information Integrity Institute (i4) at KPMG, focusing on energy risk governance and public-private collaboration. Patricia is the host of The Energy Universe Podcast, a platform dedicated to exploring the critical forces shaping the future of energy.

Eithne Treanor

Eithne Treanor is a professional conference and event moderator and international communications consultant. A former business TV reporter, her knowledge covers energy transition, business, infrastructure, maritime, diversity and leadership. She is the founder and CEO of E Treanor Media based in Dubai, and she has headlined global events as MC and lead moderator for the past 15 years. Her TV reporting experience spans major television networks including ABC News, Sky News, BBC World, Bloomberg and CNBC International. Eithne has interviewed politicians, dignitaries, business executives, thought leaders and changemakers as well as artists, creatives and impactful people. She has written and reported for television, radio and print publications. She is a graduate of Trinity College Dublin, Columbia College Chicago and has a post graduate Diploma in International Relations from London School of Economics.

Tom Ashby

Tom Ashby is an energy specialist with a background in media and communications. Previously, he served as Head of Global Communications for the International Energy Forum in Riyadh, Group Vice President of Corporate Communications for Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA), and Chief Energy Correspondent for Reuters. A former journalist and editor, Tom has spent the last decade providing strategic communications counsel to heads of state, sovereign wealth funds and CEOs. Tom spent 15 years as a Reuters correspondent in Europe, Latin America and West Africa, then moved to the Middle East to set up The National in Abu Dhabi, where he was Business Editor. He holds a bachelor’s degree in French with African and Asian Studies from Sussex University, and a certificate in Big Data and Social Analytics from MIT.

GCEA Launches in Washington, D.C., Offering a New Approach to the Energy Transition

The quest for energy security and transitions gained a transformative new ally with the launch of the Center for Global Energy Analysis.

January 15, 2025, Washington, D.C. – The quest for energy security and transitions gained a transformative new ally with the launch of the Center for Global Energy Analysis, a US-based think tank led by Joseph McMonigle, the former Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF).

The new center offers a vital new approach to energy security and transitions, offering independent research and credible insights into the global energy dialogue to support energy abundance and economic growth.

"Energy abundance is essential to powering the interconnected world and achieving prosperity for billions of people," Mr McMonigle said. "Our work focuses on delivering insights that help unlock this abundance while driving innovation to achieve sustainability goals."

The launch of the Center comes at a pivotal time for global energy policy, with Chris Wright set to take office as the new U.S. Energy Secretary after Senate confirmation. Wright's appointment signals a strong focus on balancing energy security with the advancement of innovative technologies to drive the energy transition.

McMonigle noted, "We look forward to collaborating with Secretary Wright, other energy ministers and other global energy leaders to ensure that energy systems remain reliable, affordable, and sustainable for all."

The Global Center for Energy Analysis (GCEA) seeks to bridge the gap between current energy demands and the net-zero aspirations of the future, prioritizing affordable and reliable energy solutions alongside groundbreaking innovations.

Mr McMonigle brings decades of experience in energy policy, international relations, and public affairs to the Center. As the former Secretary General of the IEF, Mr McMonigle facilitated dialogue among the world's leading energy producers and consumers, shaping consensus on critical issues such as energy security and market stability.

Prior to his role at the IEF, McMonigle served as Vice Chairman of the International Energy Agency Board of Governors and Chief of Staff at the U.S. Department of Energy under President George W. Bush, where he was instrumental in advancing energy initiatives both domestically and internationally. He is also a recognized thought leader, contributing to global energy discussions and publishing influential analyses.

The Center's approach is grounded in practical solutions for the near term and visionary strategies for the future. It emphasizes that renewables can only get halfway to net zero. The most difficult-to-abate sectors will depend on breakthrough technologies—from advanced carbon capture systems to yet-to-be-invented innovations.

"While we innovate for the future, we must act now," McMonigle stated, pointing to the importance of decarbonizing oilfield operations, coal-to-gas switching, carbon capture at power plants, and leveraging carbon markets to preserve vital rainforests and fund decarbonization projects.

The launch of GCEA coincides with Mr McMonigle's newly published opinion article, Five Energy Policy Priorities for the Trump Administration, available on Energy Connects. In this article, Mr McMonigle outlines actionable recommendations for aligning energy policy with economic growth and environmental stewardship, including:

  • Lifting the LNG Pause: Advocating for the resumption of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects to facilitate the transition from coal to natural gas, thereby reducing global CO₂ emissions.
  • Strengthening Relations with Saudi Arabia and Gulf Energy Allies: Emphasizing the importance of partnerships with Gulf Cooperation Council nations to enhance global energy security and market stability.
  • Leading the Fight Against Energy Poverty in Africa: Prioritizing U.S. foreign policy efforts to end energy poverty by 2030, recognizing that access to reliable energy is vital for health, education, and economic development.

The Global Center for Energy Analysis will deliver rigorous research and foster public engagement to assist governments, industry leaders, and stakeholders in making informed and impactful decisions. The Center's work will reflect the priorities of producers and consumers powering a $100 trillion economy, ensuring its insights are rooted in both local realities and global aspirations.

"Energy is the backbone of modern life," Mr McMonigle added. "Our mission is to ensure that energy systems are sustainable, reliable, and accessible for everyone. The stakes are high, and the time to act is now."

Five Energy Policy Priorities for the Next Administration

In his first 100 days in office, President Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright should pursue a global "energy freedom" agenda that prioritizes affordable, accessible energy.

In his first 100 days in office, President Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright should pursue a global "energy freedom" agenda that prioritizes affordable, accessible energy by removing barriers to investment and production. Such a strategy would enhance global living standards and reduce the risk of price shocks, while creating a robust foundation for tackling climate change.

A global energy freedom agenda would elevate millions of lives and address energy inequality. Contrary to the single-minded "net zero by 2050" approach, which demands immediate CO2 reductions at all costs, this agenda acknowledges other pressing global issues—chiefly the 700 million people without access to modern energy and the billions needing more energy to improve health, education, and connectivity. Advanced economies may race through their energy transitions, but for much of the world, access to reliable energy is a first, urgent priority.

Here are five key policy initiatives to cement America's global energy leadership:

1. Lift the LNG Pause

President Biden's suspension of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects was a mistake unsupported by science. Globally, coal burning reached a record high in 2023. Transitioning power generation from coal to natural gas is a climate win, as burning natural gas emits roughly half the CO2 of coal.

A McKinsey study showed that in the US, coal-to-gas switching by utilities avoided the emission of 500 million tons of CO2 over 15 years—more than all wind and solar installations combined during the same period. Without American natural gas, countries reliant on imports face higher energy costs and are more likely to resort to coal. Revitalizing LNG exports should be central to a broader "America First" strategy, particularly in energy-hungry regions like Asia.

2. Strengthen Relations with Gulf Energy Allies

A stronger partnership with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations would bolster global energy security and market stability. Together, the US and GCC countries are energy superpowers with shared interests in reducing market volatility and ensuring diverse energy supplies. Renewed collaboration can mitigate supply shocks and enhance geopolitical ties, aligning energy policy with broader strategic goals.

3. Lead the Fight Against Energy Poverty in Africa

Ending energy poverty by 2030 should be a US foreign policy priority. Today, Heathrow Airport in London consumes more energy than the entire country of Sierra Leone. Reliable, affordable energy is vital for health, education, employment, and the digital economy.

Alarmingly, even the least ambitious net zero scenario by the International Energy Agency assumes Africa's per capita energy consumption will decline by 2050. This is unacceptable. Africans should not be expected to remain in the dark to facilitate global net zero goals.

The new administration should advocate lifting bans by the World Bank and IMF on financing fossil fuel projects in developing nations. Hosting a U.S.-Africa Energy and Economic Development Summit would allow African nations to define energy scenarios aligned with their development needs. This initiative would also create lucrative markets for U.S. companies.

4. Prioritize Transformational Energy Technologies

The transition away from fossil fuels will take longer than expected due to their integral role in industries like aviation, cement, plastics, and fertilizers. Phasing out hydrocarbons prematurely, without viable alternatives, is unrealistic.

Wind and solar can achieve half of net zero goals, but the other half requires technologies still in development. Scaling up decarbonization of existing energy systems—reducing methane leaks, electrifying oil and gas production, and advancing carbon capture—should be immediate priorities.

The government must also invest in breakthrough innovations like nuclear fusion, direct air capture, and low-carbon hydrogen. These technologies could define the clean energy landscape, with America positioned as a leader. The Inflation Reduction Act should be amended to emphasize underfunded technologies like carbon capture and nuclear while focusing on life-cycle sustainability for vehicles. For instance, hybrid engines, which require less copper than electric vehicles, could play a vital role in balancing environmental and resource considerations.

5. Revitalize Investment in Hydrocarbons and Mining

Current policies risk triggering not only an energy crisis but a mineral supply crisis that could stall the transition. Investment shortfalls in hydrocarbons and critical minerals have led to price volatility, undermining public confidence in the energy transition.

The new administration must signal to investors that responsible investments in hydrocarbons and mining are essential to a pragmatic transition. Enhanced investment would support development in the Global South, alleviate energy poverty, and create a smoother pathway to sustainable energy systems.

A Path Forward

Global energy leadership demands balancing the dual imperatives of affordability and sustainability. While advancing the energy transition is crucial, it cannot come at the expense of billions without basic access to modern energy. By lifting barriers to energy investment, strengthening alliances, and championing innovation, the next administration can ensure America leads the way in solving the energy and climate challenges of our time.

We Must Elevate Our Energy And Climate Ambitions For Africa

Hidden beneath the veneer of progress lies a troubling assumption - one that assumes lower per capita energy use in Africa in 2050 from today's levels.

In the relentless march toward the 2050 target for net zero emissions, Western energy modelers are painting increasingly ambitious scenarios, hoping to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade. Yet, hidden beneath the veneer of progress lies a troubling assumption—one that assumes lower per capita energy use in Africa in 2050 from today’s levels, assigning millions of Africans to languish in poverty indefinitely to achieve this vital climate goal.

As the world clamors for cleaner energy and greener futures, the plight of those without access to electricity, predominantly in Africa, often fades into the background. But this oversight comes at a great cost—the cost of forsaking the well-being of hundreds of millions of individuals who deserve better.

Energy poverty, a burden disproportionately borne by Africans, remains a stark reality in the 21st century. While developing Asia has made significant strides in electrification over the past two decades, Africa lags far behind. The statistics are sobering: of the 730 million people worldwide without electricity, a staggering 600 million call sub-Saharan Africa home. Heathrow airport in London consumes more energy than the eight million inhabitants of Sierra Leone — a stark reminder of the cruel disparities that persist.

In the pursuit of solutions, Western experts and policymakers have often overlooked basic human needs, focusing instead on theoretical energy mixes and emissions pathways. A recent study by the Clean Air Task Force, a non-profit, uncovered a glaring truth: most research papers on African energy transitions neglect development outcomes. Instead, they dwell on abstract projections that assume the cycle of poverty continues indefinitely.

Even esteemed organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA), representing affluent OECD nations, paint a bleak picture for Africa's energy future. Their least ambitious climate scenario for 2050 depicts per capita energy use in Africa falling from today’s levels, crushing the hopes of millions for a better life. The IEA’s more ambitious climate scenarios paint an even bleaker outlook for African poverty.

The 21st century has been heralded as the African Century, with the continent projected to host a quarter of the world's population by 2050. Yet, this grand vision remains hollow without addressing Africa's energy poverty head-on. If we are to uphold the principles of justice and equity, every individual, regardless of geography, deserves the opportunity to thrive.

Imagine a future where African energy consumption mirrors that of South and Central America today—a modest increase in living standards would swell global energy demand far beyond current projections. Envision a world where African nations attain energy use akin to that of the European Union, propelling global energy demand to unprecedented levels. Such scenarios are not fanciful dreams but realistic aspirations that demand attention.

The eradication of Africa’s energy poverty should be a central focus for global climate and energy policy makers. Access to affordable energy is critical to a reduction in poverty and, by association, violent extremism, illegal migration and other challenges that afflict developed and developing nations alike.

As we chart our course towards a sustainable future, we must remember that justice knows no borders. The struggle against climate change cannot be won on the backs of the world's most vulnerable. Rural women should not be forced to sacrifice forests for cooking fuel, nor should children be denied healthcare and education due to lack of electricity.

It is time for Western experts to embrace a more inclusive vision—one that uplifts rather than marginalizes. Let us summon the courage to demand more, not just for combatting climate change, but for ending energy poverty.

If this means recalibrating our expectations and investing in new sources of reliable and affordable energy, then so be it. For without energy justice for Africa, the journey to net zero emissions will remain an incomplete odyssey—a promise unfulfilled, an injustice unresolved.

In the words of Martin Luther King Jr., "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Let us heed these words as we forge a path towards a brighter, more equitable future for all.

The Golden Age of Gas Is Upon Us

The 2011 World Energy Outlook report by the IEA introduced the concept of the "Golden Age of Gas," a period characterized by the rapid expansion of natural gas.

The 2011 World Energy Outlook report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) introduced the concept of the "Golden Age of Gas," a period characterized by the rapid expansion of natural gas in the global energy landscape.

With uncanny precision, the IEA projected that natural gas could account for over 25% of the global energy mix by 2035. More than a decade later, natural gas is on track to meet this target perhaps even before 2035, underscoring its importance in meeting global energy demand while balancing environmental concerns.

Natural gas has established itself as a critical component of the global energy mix, driven by its versatility, relative environmental benefits, and abundant supply.

The 2011 IEA report highlighted several factors contributing to the anticipated "Golden Age of Gas." Among these were the increasing availability of unconventional gas resources, particularly in North America, the growing importance of natural gas in the power generation sector, and its lower carbon footprint compared to coal and oil. The IEA report positioned natural gas as a bridge fuel in the transition towards an even lower-carbon energy future.

The forecast was driven by the expectation that natural gas would increasingly displace coal in electricity generation due to its cleaner-burning properties and that technological advancements would continue to unlock vast reserves of unconventional gas, such as shale gas. Additionally, the rising concerns over air quality and greenhouse gas emissions made natural gas an attractive option for countries seeking to reduce their reliance on more polluting fuels.

As of today, natural gas continues to be a major player in the global energy mix. According to recent data, natural gas accounted for approximately 24 percent of the world's total primary energy demand in 2023. This positions it as the second-largest energy source globally, after oil. The expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets and the ongoing shift away from coal in power generation, particularly in Asia and Europe, have contributed to the sustained growth of natural gas demand.

The annual growth rate of global natural gas demand has been relatively steady in recent years, averaging around 2-3 percent per year. This growth has been driven by increasing demand in emerging economies, where natural gas is seen as a key component of energy security strategies and efforts to reduce urban air pollution. In developed regions, natural gas remains crucial in balancing intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, providing reliable and flexible power generation.

Looking ahead to 2035, natural gas is expected to maintain its strong position in the global energy mix, although its growth rate may begin to moderate as the world intensifies its focus on decarbonization and renewable energy deployment.

Whether natural gas achieves the golden 25 percent target established by the IEA in 2011 is still open for debate. The role of natural gas will increasingly be influenced by the pace of population and energy demand growth, renewable energy adoption, advancements in energy storage technologies, and the implementation of policies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions.

In regions such as Asia and the Middle East, natural gas demand is projected to continue growing as these areas see economic expansion and urbanization. In contrast, demand in Europe and North America may plateau or even decline as these regions accelerate their energy transitions to renewables.

Another critical factor shaping the future of natural gas is the development of low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and hydrogen production. These technologies are expected to allow natural gas to play a major role in a decarbonized energy system by reducing its carbon footprint and integrating it with renewable energy sources. The growth of blue hydrogen, produced from natural gas with CCUS, is expected to provide a new avenue for natural gas utilization, particularly in industries where electrification is challenging.

Natural gas has been a cornerstone of the global energy mix since the dawn of the "Golden Age of Gas" in the early 2010s. Its continued significance is evident in its substantial share of global primary energy demand and its role in facilitating the energy transition. It is expected to remain an essential energy source in the coming decades, even as the industry adapts to the growing emphasis on decarbonization and innovation in clean energy technologies.

Real Progress in Reducing Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations

As the world confronts the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the oil and gas industry finds itself at a crucial juncture.

As the world confronts the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the oil and gas industry finds itself at a crucial juncture. The task ahead is clear: reducing the emissions intensity of oil and gas production is not just a viable option but a cost-effective and essential opportunity to combat climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) halving the emissions intensity of oil and gas operations by 2030 would require an investment of around $600 billion. This figure, while significant, is relatively modest compared to the costs associated with other decarbonization efforts.

In recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in the industry, with both governments and key players taking proactive steps to mitigate the environmental impact of oil and gas production. The recent COP28 summit marked a watershed moment when 50 leading oil and natural gas producers, responsible for 40 percent of global oil output, committed to reducing their carbon emissions to net-zero by 2050 and nearly eliminating methane emissions by 2030. However, turning these pledges into reality will require coordinated international efforts, substantial financial investments, and robust policy support.

Tackling Methane Emissions: A Priority

One of the most pressing challenges in reducing the emissions intensity of oil and gas operations is addressing methane. In 2022, greenhouse gas emissions from the production, transport, and processing of oil and gas — known as Scope 1 and 2 emissions — accounted for approximately 15 percent of total energy-related emissions globally, equivalent to around 5.1 billion tonnes, according to the IEA. Of these emissions, methane — a potent greenhouse gas with a much higher climate warming effect than carbon dioxide — constitutes nearly half, or around 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually.

At the corporate level, companies that signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter at COP28 have committed to setting interim targets to reduce methane emissions to 0.2 percent of oil and natural gas production by 2030.

However, one of the main challenges in reducing methane emissions is tracking them effectively. Investment in methane detection technologies needs to increase significantly. Companies such as Shell, Saudi Aramco, and ExxonMobil, as part of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, have expanded their satellite monitoring campaigns to detect emissions, particularly in emerging economies. This has already resulted in the identification and plugging of leaks from two operators, highlighting the potential of advanced detection technologies.

Firm policy action is crucial to driving further progress in reducing methane emissions, which remain stubbornly high. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act serves as a model in this regard, offering financial incentives for methane monitoring and mitigation and imposing penalties on owners and operators of facilities where methane emissions exceed certain thresholds.

Electrification of Operations: A Game Changer

Beyond methane reduction, the electrification of oil and gas operations presents another significant opportunity to lower emissions intensity. The industry is increasingly investing in clean energy technologies to power extraction, refining, and transportation activities, which are traditionally energy-intensive. Gas turbines, typically used to generate electricity for drilling rigs, pumps, and other equipment, can be replaced with more energy-efficient equipment or electrified using low carbon energy sources.

Norway has emerged as a leader in this area, with an estimated 60 percent of its production as of 2023 partly or fully electrified and powered by renewable energy sources from shore or offshore wind. This has given Norway the lowest emissions intensity among major oil and gas-producing countries. Similarly, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has announced a $3.8 billion subsea transmission network to connect its offshore operations to a low-carbon power network, supported by nuclear energy, potentially reducing the company's offshore carbon footprint by up to 50 percent.

BP is also making strides in this direction, having electrified large parts of its operations in the Permian Basin in Texas. As more producers follow suit, the industry will make significant progress toward meeting its decarbonization targets.

Carbon Capture and Storage: Unlocking Potential

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is another critical tool in the industry's decarbonization toolkit. The global market for oil and gas CCS was valued at $3.7 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow by nearly 15 percent annually from 2024 to 2032, according to Global Market Insights.

However, realizing the full potential of CCS in decarbonizing oil and gas operations will require overcoming several challenges, including logistical, technological, and economic barriers. Reducing the costs associated with installation and retrofitting with CCS will be essential for scaling up the technology more widely.

The Road to Net-Zero Operations

The pathway to net-zero emissions for oil and gas operations is complex and demands concerted efforts across all sectors. While significant progress has been made, achieving net-zero ambitions requires accelerating these efforts. Increased investment, strengthened policy support, and enhanced international collaboration are critical to overcoming the challenges ahead.

The future of the oil and gas industry hinges on its ability to adapt and innovate. By prioritizing the reduction of emissions intensity, particularly through methane mitigation, electrification of operations, and the expansion of CCUS, the industry can play a vital role in the global transition to a low-carbon economy. The stakes are high, but so too is the potential for meaningful impact.

Carbon markets can play a big role in financing clean energy worldwide

Carbon credits could play a significant part in reaching net-zero by 2050. But the carbon market needs much greater integrity and credibility - as well as supply.

Carbon credits could play a significant part in reaching net-zero by 2050. But the carbon market needs much greater integrity and credibility — as well as supply. How can we achieve this?

The global voluntary carbon market (VCM) is a critical tool for mobilizing finance for decarbonization efforts. As the market for carbon credits has grown, however, the value and effectiveness of the market has come under scrutiny.

To restore trust and increase confidence in the market, it is critical that carbon credits represent real, additional, verifiable emission reductions. The credibility and integrity of carbon credits rely heavily on the standards governing their creation and purchase. Strengthening market mechanisms, ensuring rigorous accounting standards, and increasing global cooperation are all essential to ensure that carbon markets contribute towards a low-carbon future.

Voluntary carbon credits have become an increasingly popular tool for climate action in recent years. They allow companies to offset their carbon emissions by funding projects that reduce or remove carbon from the atmosphere.

This can include energy efficiency projects, tree planting, and other carbon avoidance projects including sequestration of methane from landfills. They also have the potential to finance emerging climate technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Currently, however, the methodologies for certifying carbon schemes are so restrictive that engineered CCS projects are effectively shut out of the market.

VCM inflows reached a peak of $2 billion in 2021 and were estimated to grow to more than $50 billion by 2030. However, concerns about a lack of regulation have persisted and a string of newspaper investigations in 2023 highlighted inflated impact claims by carbon credit developers and gaps in project design. These eroded trust in voluntary carbon markets and led to a significant reported slowdown in the market, with sharp declines in VCM prices and contracts.

High-integrity carbon markets still have the potential to be a highly effective mechanism for decarbonization, and there are clear pathways to ensuring they are verifiable and trusted. However, the future blueprint for international carbon markets has yet to gain international consensus. Article Six of the Paris Agreement, which relates to the governance of carbon markets, remains mired in the United Nations decision-making process.

One of the most promising developments at the most recent UN Climate Conference in Dubai (COP28) — where the topic was one of intense discussion — was an agreement by major carbon registries, including Gold Standard and Verra, to align on carbon accounting principles under a new framework. While details of the framework remain thin, it represents a potentially important step towards greater harmonization across carbon markets. Independent carbon market regulators, including the Science Based Targets Initiative and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative, also agreed to produce a cohesive carbon project quality standard, which could make the market significantly easier to navigate for buyers.

Greater government scrutiny could also be an important way of improving confidence and boosting the integrity of carbon markets. Currently, compliance carbon markets are regulated and aim to offset carbon through national schemes by requiring the purchase of credits from energy-intensive industries, while voluntary markets are unregulated. In recent years, there are signs that both markets are converging, which could lead to more robust and transparent standards and digital verification efforts for both markets.

One example is Singapore's carbon tax, which allows companies to meet part of their tax liabilities through the purchase of certified third-party carbon credits. More countries — including the United States — are starting to explore alternative market models.

There are also a growing number of initiatives designed to improve transparency in carbon markets. Independent global regulators, such as Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI) are pushing for tougher scrutiny of the voluntary carbon markets, including a code of practice to ensure that companies buying credits can do so with confidence. Meanwhile the Climate Action Data Trust launched its Public Data Dashboard, meaning the public can now access and scrutinize carbon credit purchases within unprecedented ease.

As the VCM grows, carbon credit projects will have to ramp up at an unprecedented rate. Nature-based solutions and efficiency gains are valuable, but not sufficient on their own. Green-lighting CCS projects which are currently shut out of the market by restrictive certification requirements would be a powerful tool for accelerating decarbonization. This would take advantage of the wave of forthcoming projects given investment impetus through mechanisms such as the US government's federal tax credit, adding a new steady supply of carbon credits to the global market.

Strengthening credit verification, using digital methods, better matching between buyers and suppliers through standardized project descriptions and a stronger market infrastructure will all help to scale up VCMs.

Revitalizing the carbon market so that it meaningfully contributes to emissions reduction goals is a key challenge for climate action. There are signals that 2024 could be the year where global co-ordination and standardization mean that they can start to realize their significant potential.

A Realistic Energy Transition Needs a Multidimensional Approach

Previous transitions took place over long periods, today, our climate goals demand that we eliminate CO2 emissions in just a quarter of a century. The challenge is unlike any other in history.

The challenge of the energy transition we face today is unlike any other in history.

Previous transitions, from wood to coal, from coal to oil, natural gas, nuclear fuel, and renewable sources took place over long periods, were driven by market forces, and in no case was the previous energy source fully replaced.

Today, our climate goals demand that we eliminate CO2 emissions in just a quarter of a century, even as energy demand continues to grow. And the shift is being driven by policy, not markets.

Since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015, which gave rise to the net zero emissions targets, progress has been disappointing.

In fact, we recently saw new records set that seem to point in the wrong direction. Demand for coal, the most carbon intensive hydrocarbon, hit a new record at 8.3 billion tons and so did CO2 emissions, at 37 GigaTons. Evidence of global warming is in the headlines daily.

While the science on climate change is clear, how we achieve net zero is not. We have seen strong growth in wind and solar, and electric vehicles continue to multiply. But energy demand continues to outpace the growth of renewable supply. Low carbon nuclear power is spurned by many, and low carbon hydrogen has yet to be proved at scale.

We still do not know how we will decarbonize a $100 trillion global economy that was built on hydrocarbons.

Developments over the last two years, if anything, have shown that the transition is more complicated than was previously thought.

Expectations of a linear global transition have been shaken as climate goals compete with priorities around energy security, energy access, and affordability.

As Europe found when Russian gas supply was curtailed, the need for a sustainable transition competes with energy security. Priorities collide even more powerfully in the Global South, where 900 million people do not even have access to electricity.

To date the net-zero conversation has been led by the Global North – mainly the industrialized nations of the OECD – with a smaller contribution from the Global South, the developing world.

But most of the growth in energy demand over the next 30 years will come from the Global South, and these nations have little historical responsibility for the build-up of greenhouse gases.

The emergence of a new North-South divide has caused an increasingly sharp debate over the cost and timing of the energy transition, the relative burdens, and its compatibility with other priorities.

For billions of underprivileged people around the world, the priority is to get access to gas for cooking or mains power to join the digital world. And affordability is key.

Today, investment in large scale energy supply – whether the oil and gas we rely on today, renewables or the clean innovations of the future – falls far short of what is required to make energy affordable, let alone sustainable.

According to a recent study by S&P Global, there is a $25 trillion cumulative funding gap between forecast spending and the investment needed to achieve net-zero by 2050.

The risks have grown significantly that high energy costs will undermine public acceptance of policies to enable the transition.

But it is not all doom and gloom.

There is optimism that the pace of technology innovation may continue to accelerate and that costs of new technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), low-carbon hydrogen, energy storage will decline rapidly within this decade.

And we all hold out hope for more experimental technologies such as nuclear fusion and LK-99, a superconductor. The Googles of the future could emerge in the clean energy space.

But there is also a growing recognition that the incumbent oil and gas industry must be part of the solution to our emissions problem. The industry provides 55 percent of the world's energy today and has a wealth of financial and technical capabilities to innovate, deploy and operate at scale.

A one-size fits all net zero pathway that ignored energy security was misguided and actually undermined progress on reducing emissions.

The energy crisis of the past three years points to the need to develop a multidimensional approach that is inclusive of diverse situations in different parts of the world, and is equitable.

The path to net-zero, will have to travel via the Global South and therefore it is in everyone's interest to collaborate and cooperate to achieve our shared goals.

New Energy Supplies Needed to Meet Growing Demand from Gen AI

As GenAI cements its place in our working lives and becomes a train that can’t be stopped, there is new focus on providing new energy supplies to meet this skyrocketing demand.

ChatGPT, Gemini and other generative AI tools have become mainstays on our devices and in our workflows. In a recent survey, 65% of respondents reported that their organizations routinely use GenAI – nearly double the percentage than a mere ten months earlier.

As GenAI cements its place in our working lives and becoming a train that can't be stopped, there is new focus on providing new energy supplies to meet this skyrocketing demand.

AI company leaders in Silicon Valley are less concerned about a shortage of chips but instead very alarmed by a shortage of energy.

Unprecedented power, unprecedented energy demand

Popular GenAI tools are based on large language models (LLMs), a name which almost obscures their scale. More gigantic than large, these LLMs use neural networks with billions of parameters, which require vast amounts of computing power across multiple machines to train and use. Added to which, they are running 24 hours a day. All that energy use adds up quickly.

For example, it would take an average American household over 120 years to match the amount of energy used to train GPT-3. But it's not just training we need to consider, LLMs are also intensive to run: the energy required for one ChatGPT search is approximately ten times more than a Google search.

After years of a stable level of consumption, experts estimate that demand for power from data centers will grow by 160% by 2030. They suggest that AI may be responsible for a whopping 19% of data center power demand by 2028.

The escalating demand for data center power poses a significant challenge to an energy system already struggling to meet growing needs while reducing carbon intensity. On today's trajectory, AI electricity consumption could account for up to 0.5% of global energy use by 2027 - as much as a country the size of the Netherlands.

All of the energy transition scenarios are practically outdated now because they do not take into account the necessity and growing significant energy demand from AI and other data compute technologies.

Environmental impact

Adding to these concerns, GenAI has a heavy environmental footprint beyond energy consumption.

Training OpenAI's GPT-3 generated 552 metric tons of carbon dioxide – comparable to the emissions from driving 112 gasoline-powered cars for a year. The emissions associated with smaller models have also surprised researchers.

And the data centers that power GenAI are resource-hungry, demanding large quantities of water. In 2021, before GenAI emerged into the public sphere, Google's global data center fleet consumed approximately 4.3 billion gallons of water. The average Google data center used 450,000 gallons of water per day.

With water and energy among the top concerns on the climate agenda, it's quickly becoming apparent that GenAI has found its place in our homes and offices, but not in the energy transition.

Mitigating strategies

There's no putting the GenAI back in the bottle. To move forward, we need early and strong commitment to address its rising energy and environmental costs.

In one sign of progress, Microsoft and Constellation signed an agreement in September to restart the mothballed Three Mile Island nuclear power station in the United States to power data centers used for AI.

This is one sign that companies recognize the need to invest not only in AI, but in more efficient infrastructure and low carbon energy sources. Another step would be to use more efficient tailored models for AI work, instead of defaulting to enormous general-purpose models that churn through energy for a given task.

More broadly, the development of GenAI has also been cloaked in mystery, with little insight into the true energy cost of the latest LLMs. Encouraging transparency on energy use and emissions will help hold companies accountable and help policymakers understand the staggering new energy supplies that will be needed to power this new evolving sector.